1. The polyvinyl alcohol industry has entered a benign development stage of transformation and upgrading
Polyvinyl alcohol is a water-soluble polymer material with excellent properties such as cohesiveness, fiber forming, emulsification stability, gas barrier, film forming and biodegradability. It is mainly used in the production of polymerization additives, special fibers, adhesives, safety glass sandwich film (PVB film), water soluble film, optical film, etc., and is widely used in fine chemical industry, green building, paper making, fiber, automobile, degradable packaging, optoelectronics, medicine and other industries.
Polyvinyl alcohol industry is a technology-intensive industry with long production process route, complex technology and great difficulty. The main production processes of polyvinyl alcohol include carbide acetylene method, petroleum ethylene method and natural gas acetylene method. Due to the difference in energy consumption structure, the production of polyvinyl alcohol in the world is mainly based on the petroleum ethylene method, while in China, the calcium carbide acetylene method is the main method. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, at present, there are 9 domestic polyvinyl alcohol production enterprises (belonging to 5 group companies including Sinopec and Wanwei High-tech), among which the calcium carbide acetylene method is the dominant one, and there are 5 production enterprises with a total capacity of 620000 tons, accounting for about 62% of the total domestic polyvinyl alcohol production capacity.
Since the 12th Five-Year Plan, the national environmental protection standards have been continuously improved, accelerating the withdrawal of backward production capacity in the industry. At present, the domestic polyvinyl alcohol industry has basically completed the integration, and with the increasing demand for high-value-added PVA products in emerging industries such as photovoltaic, photovoltaic and pharmaceutical industries, the industry has entered a benign development stage of transformation and upgrading.
2. Analysis of supply and demand and demand structure
In terms of demand scale, after the global financial crisis, due to the low prosperity of downstream industries such as adhesives and textile sizing, and the risk of new product substitution in some fields, the global consumption of polyvinyl alcohol has shown a relatively stable and small growth trend. According to the statistics of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, the world's consumption of polyvinyl alcohol in 2015 was 1.343 million tons, and the consumption in 2020 remained around 1.35 million tons. The demand for polyvinyl alcohol is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America and Western Europe, and the consumption of these three regions accounts for about 85% of the total global consumption. China is the world's most important polyvinyl alcohol consumption market, accounting for about 50% of the total global consumption. In recent years, while the total consumption of China's polyvinyl alcohol industry has remained stable, the consumption structure has been continuously optimized, and the proportion of downstream high-value-added demand has increased.
In the domestic consumption structure of polyvinyl alcohol, polymerization additives account for 38%, fabric size accounts for 20%, adhesive accounts for 12%, and vinylon fiber accounts for 11%. Other applications are mainly concentrated in paper making, architectural coating, PVB, dispersant and other fields. In recent years, the proportion of demand for PVA in high value-added emerging fields such as PVB and PVA water soluble film has been increasing. However, compared with the world, the proportion of high-end demand for PVB and PVA film in the consumption structure of PVA in China is still relatively low, and there is a large space for market improvement in relevant fields.
The global total production capacity of polyvinyl alcohol is about 1.85 million tons, mainly concentrated in China, Japan, the United States and other countries and regions, of which the Asia-Pacific region is the main production area, accounting for more than 85% of the world's total production. In 2021, the world's actual production of polyvinyl alcohol will be about 1.25 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 68%. With the increasing competition in the traditional polyvinyl alcohol product market, international giants have gradually withdrawn from the traditional polyvinyl alcohol product market and turned to the downstream to expand the production of PVA extension products with high added value. The global polyvinyl alcohol production capacity is gradually shifting to China. In recent years, the backward production capacity of China's polyvinyl alcohol industry has gradually withdrawn, and the total output and operating rate have shown an overall growth trend.
3. Development trend of polyvinyl alcohol industry
(1) Demand expansion and overcapacity clearance, and industry prosperity continued to rise
With the development of social economy and the expansion of downstream application fields of PVA, the domestic demand for PVA has increased steadily in recent years, especially for special PVA products. The first round of integration of the domestic PVA industry at the supply side has been basically completed, and small and medium-sized capacity has withdrawn, and the production and sales of major manufacturers in the industry have become increasingly rational. With the expansion and upgrading of the demand side and the continuous optimization of the supply side, the supply and demand of polyvinyl alcohol market has gradually balanced, the price has steadily increased, the industry prosperity has continued to improve, and the benign development has been achieved, which provides a good industry environment for enterprises in the industry to deepen technical innovation and develop high value-added PVA products.
(2) Downstream application fields continue to expand, and high-end products gradually realize import substitution
At present, China's polyvinyl alcohol products are still dominated by conventional products, and the special performance polyvinyl alcohol products with high added value mainly rely on imports. The homogeneity competition of domestic PVA enterprises is relatively fierce. The import substitution of high-end products and the development of international markets have become the inevitable trend of the future development of domestic PVA enterprises. From the development experience of PVA industry in developed countries, the transformation and upgrading of PVA industry is mainly reflected in the expansion of downstream application fields driven by product performance improvement. With the rapid growth of demand in the fields of automobile, architecture, optoelectronics, green packaging and medicine, new products such as PVA optical film, PVA water soluble film and PVB film have great market potential. Major enterprises in the domestic PVA industry have continuously increased their investment in research and development, and are committed to improving the quality of PVA products and developing high value-added PVA products. At present, the domestic common varieties of PVA products have basically realized import substitution, the production technology of special varieties and extension products of PVA has become increasingly mature, new products are gradually put on the market, and the downstream application space of the domestic PVA industry has been further expanded. The main high value-added PVA products are as follows:
1) PVA products for water soluble film
Water-soluble film is a new green packaging material with unique biodegradable properties, and the market demand has increased rapidly in recent years. Because water-soluble film needs to have better transparency and gloss, higher tensile strength and tear strength, high-end water-soluble film products such as laundry beads, water transfer film and other products have higher performance requirements, and have high requirements for the solubility, transparency and other properties of raw PVA. With the rapid expansion of domestic high-end water-soluble film market, the demand for PVA products for high-end water-soluble film will continue to grow.
2) High-end PVB special material
PVB is polyvinyl butyral. PVB film is mainly used as an intermediate adhesive film layer in the manufacture of laminated safety glass, and is widely used in automobile, high-rise buildings, aviation, navigation and other fields. The high-end PVB film has been under the monopoly of Japanese enterprises in the past few decades, but in recent years, the gap between China's PVB film and the international advanced enterprises such as Japan's Corelli in technology level has been narrowing. The leading domestic PVB enterprises have broken through the automotive grade PVB, building grade PVB and photovoltaic grade PVB products, and have effectively driven the technical upgrading of China's polyvinyl alcohol industry by purchasing PVB special materials from domestic manufacturers.
3) Vinyl chloride polymerization dispersant
Suspension polymerization is the main method of industrial production of PVC resin. As an important auxiliary for suspension polymerization of vinyl chloride, vinyl chloride polymerization dispersant determines the quality and performance of PVC products to a large extent. China's PVC production capacity accounts for more than 40% of the world's total production capacity. However, vinyl chloride polymerization dispersant has been imported from abroad for a long time, and the market is basically monopolized by a few enterprises, such as Coca-Cola of Japan, MCC, Synthamer of the United Kingdom, and the price remains high. In recent years, with the continuous improvement of domestic technology, domestic vinyl chloride polymerization dispersants are gradually replacing imports.
4) PVA products for optical film
The optical film made of PVA is the core material of polarizer, which is the core component of LCD. Against the background of the rapid development of the global LCD display industry, the global polarizer market has grown steadily, resulting in a broad market demand for optical films in the future, and driving the rapid growth of the demand for PVA products for optical films.
5) Other special PVA products
As one of the few water-soluble polymers, polyvinyl alcohol has been continuously expanded in its application field. In recent years, PVA products with special properties continue to emerge and gradually enter the market, such as anionic modified PVA, cationic modified PVA, low ethylene modified PVA, acetyl modified PVA and other modified PVA products. Special PVA products can meet the requirements of specific application fields for material properties, and further expand the application fields of PVA. At present, special PVA products mainly rely on imports and have large import substitution space.
(3) Strict environmental protection control and promotion of industry integration, transformation and upgrading
In recent years, the national environmental protection control has continued to increase, the environmental protection policy has become stricter, and the environmental protection investment and regulatory pressure of the PVA industry has increased. At present, the integration of domestic PVA industry has been basically completed, backward production capacity and vulnerable enterprises have basically withdrawn, and the industry will accelerate its transformation to high value-added and green environmental protection in the future. The advantages of leading enterprises with strong R&D capability, advanced technology, long industrial chain, low cost and good efficiency in the industry will be further highlighted, and the industry concentration of PVA and downstream industries is expected to be further enhanced.
