Summary:
1、 Industry chain: auto production stopped falling and recovered, driving the demand for carbon black to increase
Carbon black has a strong adsorption effect, so it can be used as a high-quality rubber reinforcing agent to increase the strength of rubber. More than 80% of carbon black is used in rubber production, of which the demand for tires is the largest. Carbon black can effectively improve the wear resistance of tires. With the opening of the epidemic prevention and control policy, China's economic vitality will accelerate to recover, and the demand for consumer goods such as automobiles will usher in a significant rise. In 2021, China's automobile production will stop falling and recover, so the demand for upstream components such as tires will also rise. Carbon black, as the main raw material of tyres, is an important part of automobile, and its demand will also increase with the increase of automobile production.
2、 Industry status: China is a major producer of carbon black, and the average price of carbon black has an obvious upward trend
China is the country with the largest output of carbon black in the world. In 2021, nearly half of the world's carbon black will be produced in China. In 2020, affected by the COVID-19, the operating rate declined. At the same time, the overall economic environment was damaged and the market demand declined, leading to a significant decline in China's carbon black output. In 2022, the average price of carbon black in China showed an overall upward trend, with a slight decline in June and July, but still higher than the average price at the beginning of the year. With the gradual recovery of the vitality of China's automobile market, especially the rapid increase of the demand for new energy vehicles, the overall market demand for carbon black is developing well, and the average price of carbon black is expected to remain high in the future.
3、 Import and export trade: China's carbon black export demand is large, mainly in Asia
China is a big exporter of carbon black. In 2021, the export quantity of carbon black in China will be 446300 tons, while the import quantity of carbon black in China will be less than 10000 tons in the same year. China's carbon black export is mainly in Asia, and South Korea and Japan are the main carbon black export countries in China. South Korea and Japan have a small land area and relatively few domestic coal resources, so the supply of carbon black is relatively small. In addition, the automobile industry, durable consumer goods and other industries in South Korea and Japan have developed well, and the demand for carbon black is large, so the import demand for carbon black is large.
4、 Development trend: the demand for carbon black is increasing, and the scale of the industry is improving
With the good results of epidemic prevention and control in China and the encouragement of a series of consumption promotion policies, China's economy has recovered steadily, economic vitality has gradually recovered, and market consumption demand has increased. The demand for automobiles, durable consumer goods, electronic products and other consumer goods increased, which in turn drove the demand for upstream related industries to increase. With the release of China's "double carbon" goal, the environmental protection policies of all walks of life have been further tightened, and the national energy consumption double control policy has become increasingly strict. The energy conservation, emission reduction and comprehensive utilization of resources in the carbon black industry have become the key direction of industry development. Enterprises with small scale and weak pollution control capacity may face liquidation, and the market concentration of the carbon black industry will be improved.
Key words: carbon black industry chain industry status quo import and export trade development trend
1、 Industry chain: auto production stopped falling and recovered, driving the demand for carbon black to increase
Carbon black is an amorphous carbon, also known as carbon black. Carbon black is the product of incomplete combustion or thermal decomposition of carbon-containing substances under the condition of insufficient air. At the beginning of the discovery of carbon black, carbon black was mainly used as a black dye. With the progress of the times, people gradually found other uses of carbon black. Now, in addition to dyeing, the most common use of carbon black is as a reinforcing agent for rubber. According to the different uses of carbon black, it can be divided into carbon black for rubber and non-rubber. Carbon black for rubber is mainly used in tire production, while non-rubber carbon black can be used in pigments, plastics, conductive materials and other products.
Carbon black is the product of incomplete combustion of hydrocarbons, which requires feedstock oil with high aromatics content and less asphaltene and impurities. At present, the feedstock of carbon black in China mainly includes petroleum oil and coal tar oil. Petroleum oil is mainly ethylene tar, because other petroleum residues have low aromatic content and are not suitable for producing carbon black. Coal tar series oil includes coal tar and anthracene oil, which are ideal carbon black feedstock. These carbon black feedstocks are all by-products of coal or oil. China's raw coal output is relatively sufficient. From 2017 to 2021, the output increased year by year. From January to November 2022, China's raw magnesium output was 4.094 billion tons, an increase of about 420 million tons over the same period of the previous year. After a slight decline in 2018, China's crude oil production also showed a gradual increasing trend. By the first 11 months of 2022, China's crude oil production was 187.775 million tons, an increase of 5.291 million tons over the same period of the previous year. Abundant output of raw coal and crude oil ensures sufficient raw materials for carbon black production and stable supply.
From 2018 to 2020, under the influence of the global financial crisis and the superimposed epidemic, China's car market was cold, and the output of cars dropped three times, and dropped to 25.3249 million in 2020. In 2021, China's economic vitality will gradually recover, and the output of automobiles will rise to 26.257 million. In 2022, it will continue to rise. From January to November, China's output of automobiles will reach 25.02 million, an increase of 1.358 million over the same period of the previous year. With the support of policies, the output of new energy vehicles in China continued to rise, from 794000 in 2017 to 3.545 million in 2021. In 2022, the output of new energy vehicles in China further increased to 6.253 million, with a rapid growth rate. China's automobile production stopped falling and rebounded, driving the demand of upstream industries to rise. Carbon black, as the main raw material of tyres, is an important part of automobile, and its demand will also increase with the increase of automobile production.
2、 Industry status: China is a major producer of carbon black, and the average price of carbon black has an obvious upward trend
China is one of the first countries to produce carbon black in the world. In ancient times, people found that the black ash formed by the burning of animal and vegetable oil and pine branches can be used to make ink and black pigment, which is the earliest carbon black. With the change of time, people's understanding of carbon black has gradually increased, and its preparation methods and uses have gradually enriched. China is the country with the largest output of carbon black in the world. In 2021, nearly half of the world's carbon black will be produced in China. In addition, the output of carbon black in the United States is only second to that of China, accounting for about 10% of the global output.
From 2016 to 2021, China's carbon black capacity increased year by year, from 7.01 million tons in 2016 to 8.2 million tons in 2021. It is expected that China's carbon black capacity will continue to increase to 8.51 million tons in 2022. From 2016 to 2019, China's carbon black output maintained stable growth, and in 2019, China's carbon black output increased to 5.75 million tons. In 2020, affected by the COVID-19, the operating rate declined. At the same time, the overall economic environment was damaged and the market demand declined, leading to a significant decline in China's carbon black output, down to 4.82 million tons. In 2021, China's carbon black output will rise to 5.2 million tons, and it is expected that the carbon black output in 2022 will be the same as that in 2021.
In 2022, the average price of carbon black in China showed an overall upward trend, with a slight decline in June and July, but still higher than the average price at the beginning of the year. In January and February 2022, the average price of carbon black in China stabilized at about 9100 yuan per ton, and then rose to more than 10000 yuan per ton from March to May, mainly due to the low operating rate of some carbon black enterprises in Shanxi Province due to the impact of policies. At the same time, the international situation aggravated the shortage of carbon black supply in the European market, and the increased demand for carbon black export in China. In addition, the impact of the epidemic situation, the shortage of logistics resources, and the rise in freight costs, further pushed up the average price of carbon black in China. Although the average price of carbon black in China declined slightly in June and July, it has risen rapidly since September and reached a record high of 12246 yuan per ton in November. With the gradual recovery of the vitality of China's automobile market, especially the rapid increase of the demand for new energy vehicles, the overall market demand for carbon black is developing well, and the average price of carbon black is expected to remain high in the future.
3、 Import and export trade: China's carbon black export demand is large, mainly in Asia
China is the country with the largest output of carbon black in the world, and China is also a big exporter of carbon black. In 2021, China's carbon black export volume will be 446300 tons, while China's carbon black import volume in the same year will be less than 10000 tons. After 2018, China's carbon black exports fell from 464300 tons in 2018 to 443500 tons in 2020, a decrease of nearly 20000 tons. However, the export value of carbon black in China is on the rise as a whole. The export value in 2018 rose from 594 million yuan to 663 million yuan in 2020, mainly due to the gradual increase in the average export price of carbon black in China. In 2020, the average export price of carbon black in China increased from about 12000 yuan per ton in 2018 to about 14000 yuan per ton. By 2022, the average export price of carbon black in China will continue to rise. From January to November, the export quantity of carbon black in China will be 378600 tons, the export amount will reach 812 million yuan, and the average export price will rise to more than 20000 yuan per ton.
China's carbon black export is dominated by Asia, and South Korea and Japan are the main carbon black export countries of China. From January to November 2022, China exported 134600 tons of carbon black to South Korea, accounting for 35.55% of the total export volume; During the same period, China exported 91700 tons of carbon black to Japan, accounting for 24.24% of the total export volume. South Korea and Japan have small land areas and relatively few domestic coal resources, so the supply of carbon black is relatively small. In addition, the automobile industry, durable consumer goods and other industries in South Korea and Japan have developed well, and the demand for carbon black is large, so the import demand for carbon black is large. In addition, South Korea and Japan are across the sea from China, with relatively short transportation distance and relatively low transportation cost.
4、 Development trend: the demand for carbon black is increasing, and the scale of the industry is improving
1. The domestic economy has recovered steadily, and the demand for carbon black may increase
In 2018, China's auto market was cold. In the following years, China's auto production continued to decline, and the demand for upstream tires and other auto parts also declined. However, with the support of the policy, China's new energy vehicles have developed rapidly, and the production and sales volume have continued to rise, which to some extent has made up for the impact of the cold auto market. With the good results of epidemic prevention and control in China and the encouragement of a series of consumption promotion policies, China's economy has recovered steadily, economic vitality has gradually recovered, and market consumption demand has increased. In December 2022, China's epidemic prevention and control restriction policy will also be gradually released, and China's economy may accelerate its recovery. The consumption demand for automobiles, durable consumer goods, electronic products and other consumer goods will increase rapidly, which will drive the demand of upstream related industries to increase. As an important raw material for tyres, carbon black will increase the demand for carbon black for tyres as the market demand for automobiles increases. In addition, the demand for durable consumer goods and electronic products will also increase the demand for carbon black for plastics and conductive carbon black.
2. The national environmental protection policy is becoming stricter, accelerating the optimization of carbon black enterprises
The production of carbon black requires insufficient combustion of fuel oil and high energy consumption. In addition, the tail gas emission and dust in the process of carbon black production will pollute the environment. Therefore, the carbon black industry is classified by the state as a highly polluting and energy-consuming industry. With the release of China's "double carbon" goal, the environmental protection policies of all walks of life have been further tightened, and the national energy consumption double control policy has become increasingly strict. The energy conservation, emission reduction and comprehensive utilization of resources in the carbon black industry have become the key direction of industry development. Enterprises with small scale and weak pollution control capacity may face liquidation, and the market concentration of the carbon black industry will be improved.
