The short-term pattern of strong supply and weak demand cannot be changed temporarily, and PVC fluctuates weakly

The operating rate of PVC enterprises increased by 4.93% to 79.77% month on month, with the operating rate of carbide method increasing by 6.71% to 80.51% month on month, and the operating rate of ethylene method decreasing by 1.82% to 76.29% month on month.

1. Supply: The operating rate of PVC resin enterprises increased by 4.93% to 79.77% month on month, with the operating rate of carbide method increasing by 6.71% to 80.51% month on month, and the operating rate of ethylene method decreasing by 1.82% to 76.29% month on month; The loss of equipment maintenance decreased by 19.42% month on month to 119300 tons; The total production increased by 4.73% month on month to 458300 tons, of which the production of carbide method increased by 7.35% month on month to 343400 tons, and the production of ethylene method decreased by 2.40% month on month to 114900 tons.

2. Demand: The operating rate of downstream enterprises decreased by 1.71% to 54.01% month on month, with the operating rate of pipes increasing by 1.88% to 50.94% month on month and the operating rate of profiles decreasing by 0.37% to 48.71% month on month; The production and sales ratio decreased by 2.42% month on month to 138.99%.

3. Inventory: Upstream enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% month on month to 320700 tons, of which the inventory of carbide method enterprises increased by 1.34% month on month to 240200 tons, and the inventory of ethylene method enterprises increased by 0.12% month on month to 80500 tons; Social inventory decreased by 0.38% month on month to 603800 tons.

4. Raw materials: The price of thermal coal decreased by 0.14% month on month to 873.75 yuan/ton, the price of calcium carbide increased by 2.78% month on month to 2725.00 yuan/ton, the price of naphtha increased by 1.70% month on month to 8124.50 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol decreased by 1.95% month on month to 2520.00 yuan/ton.

5. Summary: On the supply side, production profits have increased compared to the same period last year, and many maintenance devices have resumed production as planned. Construction has quickly resumed, and production continues to increase, currently at a 5-year high level; On the demand side, although the overall operating rate has decreased, the magnitude is not significant, and the production of pipes has also recovered. Although the overall demand is weak, it is highly likely that it will not deteriorate significantly; On the inventory side, despite weak demand, exports have not performed well, and upstream refineries have slightly accumulated inventory, while social inventory pressure still exists. Overall, social inventory may still maintain a relatively high level. On the one hand, the current month difference provides some arbitrage space, allowing warehouse receipts to be gradually thrown towards distant months. On the other hand, the periodic arbitrage opportunities provided by the market further increase the pressure on social inventory. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand cannot be changed temporarily. However, real estate policies still provide some expected space for distant months, so they are treated as volatile and weak.